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Random Walk Null Models for Time Series Data

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Permutation entropy has become a standard tool for time series analysis that exploits the temporal and ordinal relationships within data. Motivated by a Kullback–Leibler divergence interpretation of permutation entropy as… Click to show full abstract

Permutation entropy has become a standard tool for time series analysis that exploits the temporal and ordinal relationships within data. Motivated by a Kullback–Leibler divergence interpretation of permutation entropy as divergence from white noise, we extend pattern-based methods to the setting of random walk data. We analyze random walk null models for correlated time series and describe a method for determining the corresponding ordinal pattern distributions. These null models more accurately reflect the observed pattern distributions in some economic data. This leads us to define a measure of complexity using the deviation of a time series from an associated random walk null model. We demonstrate the applicability of our methods using empirical data drawn from a variety of fields, including to a variety of stock market closing prices.

Keywords: null models; time series; walk null; random walk

Journal Title: Entropy
Year Published: 2017

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