LAUSR

The “double carbon” goal (China aims to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060) puts forward new requirements for the low-carbon development of agriculture. However, with the increasing aging of the rural population and the gradual aging of the agricultural labor force, determining the best means of achieving the target of reducing agricultural carbon emissions is particularly urgent. Based on the IPAT identity relationship (method of decomposing environmental impact (I) into socio-economic variables: population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T)), aging of the rural population, rural residents’ income, and agricultural technology innovation were selected as threshold variables. Using provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020 in China, this study empirically analyzed the impact of rural population aging on agricultural carbon emissions through a threshold–STIRPAT expansion model. The results showed that agricultural carbon emissions showed an inverted U-shaped growth trend from 2003 to 2020 and reached a peak in 2016. Baseline regression found that rural population aging has a significant emission reduction effect on agricultural carbon emissions. In addition, rural residents’ income and agricultural technology innovation have significant positive and negative impacts on agricultural carbon emissions, respectively. Using the three environmental factors as threshold variables, it was found that there is a significant threshold effect. The emission reduction effect of rural population aging weakens with the deepening of the aging degree but is enhanced with the improvement of rural residents’ income and agricultural technology innovation. In view of these findings, policy suggestions are put forward for agricultural low-carbon development that alleviates the effects of rural population aging, increases rural residents’ income, and strengthens agricultural technological innovation.