LAUSR

Key Points Question What is the accuracy of future predictions of technologic breakthrough innovations in the next 20 years? Findings In 2001, a diverse group of research and clinical experts was assembled to predict the likelihood of various breakthrough innovations in the next 20 years in Alzheimer disease and cardiovascular disease. In 2017, another group of clinical experts in each condition was assembled to judge the accuracy of these predictions and found that 15 of 17 predictions were judged to have been close to correct or directionally correct, 2 predictions were judged to be incorrect, and 3 breakthrough innovations occurred that were not predicted. Meaning This method produced predictions that were good but not completely accurate; further work is needed to improve methods of innovation forecasting.