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Development and Validation of a Multivariable Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model That Includes Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening Results

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Key Points Question In this study of data from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), can a lung cancer risk model’s prediction be improved by inclusion of lung cancer screening… Click to show full abstract

Key Points Question In this study of data from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST), can a lung cancer risk model’s prediction be improved by inclusion of lung cancer screening results? Findings In this secondary analysis of NLST data including 22 229 participants, a model incorporating a validated lung cancer risk prediction model, the PLCOm2012 model, with National Lung Screening Trial results (PLCO2012results) predicted future lung cancer significantly better than a model excluding results. Meaning The PLCO2012results model estimates may improve stratification of patients being screened for lung cancer into high- and low-risk strata and may help guide decision making regarding screening interval.

Keywords: cancer risk; model; lung cancer; lung

Journal Title: JAMA Network Open
Year Published: 2019

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