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Association of Social Distancing, Population Density, and Temperature With the Instantaneous Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Counties Across the United States

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Key Points Question How is the instantaneous reproduction number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) associated with social distancing, wet-bulb temperature, and population density in counties across the… Click to show full abstract

Key Points Question How is the instantaneous reproduction number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) associated with social distancing, wet-bulb temperature, and population density in counties across the United States? Findings In this cohort study of 211 counties in 46 states, social distancing, temperate weather, and lower population density were associated with a decrease in the instantaneous reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2. Of these county-specific factors, social distancing appeared to have the most substantial association with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Meaning In this study, the instantaneous reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 varied substantially among counties; the associations between the reproduction number and county-specific factors could inform policies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in selective and heterogeneous communities.

Keywords: reproduction number; sars cov; instantaneous reproduction; social distancing

Journal Title: JAMA Network Open
Year Published: 2020

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