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Development of a Model to Estimate the Association Between Delay in Cancer Treatment and Local Tumor Control and Risk of Metastases

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Key Points Question What are the potential risks of decreased local tumor control and increased metastatic spread for patients with cancer who experience treatment delays due to the coronavirus disease… Click to show full abstract

Key Points Question What are the potential risks of decreased local tumor control and increased metastatic spread for patients with cancer who experience treatment delays due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic? Findings In this decision analytical model, a simplified mathematical model of tumor growth, metastasis formation, and tumor control by radiotherapy was developed and applied to 3 cancers with different doubling times and propensities to metastasize. Estimated detrimental risks were largest for fast-growing and intermediate-growing tumors and for longer treatment delays. Meaning This model provided quantitative risk estimates that may help to guide physicians and patients with treatment decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: treatment; model; tumor control; local tumor; tumor

Journal Title: JAMA Network Open
Year Published: 2021

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