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Development of Electronic Health Record–Based Prediction Models for 30-Day Readmission Risk Among Patients Hospitalized for Acute Myocardial Infarction

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Key Points Question Can machine learning deployed in electronic health records be used to improve readmission risk estimation for patients following acute myocardial infarction? Findings In this cohort study examining… Click to show full abstract

Key Points Question Can machine learning deployed in electronic health records be used to improve readmission risk estimation for patients following acute myocardial infarction? Findings In this cohort study examining externally validated machine learning risk models for 30-day readmission of 10 187 patients following hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, good discrimination performance was noted at the development site, but the best discrimination did not result in the best calibration. External validation yielded significant declines in discrimination and calibration. Meaning The findings of this study highlight that robust calibration assessments are a necessary complement to discrimination when machine learning models are used to predict post–acute myocardial infarction readmission; challenges with data availability across sites, even in the presence of a common data model, limit external validation performance.

Keywords: risk; readmission; myocardial infarction; electronic health; acute myocardial

Journal Title: JAMA Network Open
Year Published: 2021

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