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Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Future Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in People With Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease

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Key Points Question Can routinely available data from primary care visits be used to develop and externally validate a prediction model that reliably predicts estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) for… Click to show full abstract

Key Points Question Can routinely available data from primary care visits be used to develop and externally validate a prediction model that reliably predicts estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) for upcoming follow-up visits? Findings In this prognostic study involving 4637 adults with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease, a prediction model including 13 routinely collected baseline variables based on data from 3 prospective multinational cohort studies was developed and externally validated. The model was robust, well calibrated, and capable of predicting decreases in eGFR up to 5 years after baseline. Meaning These findings suggest that the prediction model, which is publicly available in a web-based application, may be used to improve prediction of individual eGFR trajectories and kidney function decline.

Keywords: glomerular filtration; prediction model; filtration rate; estimated glomerular; prediction; model

Journal Title: JAMA Network Open
Year Published: 2023

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