LAUSR

Importance High-intensity drinking (HID) (≥10 drinks in a row) is associated with acute negative outcomes. Identifying factors associated with HID initiation in adolescence and how it is associated with young adulthood outcomes can inform screening and prevention. Objective To identify when individuals initiate HID and speed of escalation from first drink and first binge to first HID; characteristics associated with initiation and escalation; and whether these characteristics are associated with weekly alcohol consumption, HID frequency, and symptoms of alcohol use disorder at age 20 years. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study analyzed web-based survey data from respondents in the US who reported alcohol use in the past 30 days recruited from the 2018 12th grade Monitoring the Future study and surveyed again from February 14 through April 17, 2020, at modal age 20 years in the Young Adult Daily Life Study. Only respondents who reported HID by modal age 20 years were included in the analyses. Exposures Retrospective alcohol use initiation and self-reported alcohol use measures. Main Outcomes and Measures Key retrospective measures included year of initiation for alcohol, first binge (≥5 drinks), and HID (≥10 drinks). Measures at age 20 years included weekly alcohol consumption, HID frequency, and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) scores. Covariates included biologic sex, race and ethnicity, parental college education, family history of alcohol problems, and college status. Descriptive statistics and multivariable regression models were used, and all analyses were weighted. Results Of the 451 participants with data eligible for analysis, 62.0% were male (38.0% female). On average, alcohol, binge, and HID were initiated during high school. Mean time of escalation from first drink to first HID was 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.1) years and between first binge and first HID, 0.7 (95% CI, 0.6-0.8) years. Initiating HID by grade 11 (vs later) was associated with higher average weekly alcohol consumption (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10-1.79]), HID frequency (aIRR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.25-3.22]), and AUDIT score (adjusted odds ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.34]) at age 20 years. Escalation from first binge to first HID in the same year (vs ≥1 year) was associated with higher HID frequency at age 20 years (aIRR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06-2.61). Conclusions and Relevance These findings suggest that understanding ages and patterns of HID initiation and escalation associated with particular risk may facilitate screening for adolescents and young adults.