LAUSR

In this paper we demonstrate how parameters describing the geometry of the volcanic ash source for a particular volcanic ash dispersion model (HYSPLIT) may be inferred by the use of satellite data and multiple trial simulations. The areas of space likely to be contaminated by ash are identified with the aid of various remote sensing techniques and polygons are drawn around these areas as they would be in an operational setting. Dispersion model simulations are initialized either by a cylindrical source or a specified ash distribution depending on the context. Parameters of interest such as the base and top height, diameter, and optimal release time of the cylindrical source or the height of the specified ash distribution are inferred by forming a parameter grid and running multiple simulations for each parameter grid-point value. Optimal values of the parameter values are identified by calculating spatial correlations between the model simulations and observations. We demonstrate that the methodology can be used to correctly infer various model parameters and improves volcanic ash forecasts in various eruption case studies.