LAUSR

Seasonal pluvial-drought transition processes are unique natural phenomena. To explore possible mechanisms, we considered Southwest China (SWC) as the study region and comprehensively investigated the temporal evolution or spatial patterns of large-scale and regional atmospheric variables with the simple method of Standardized Anomalies (SA). Some key procedures and results include: (1) Because regional atmospheric variables are more directly responsible for the transition processes, we investigate it in detail. The temporal evolution of net vertical integral water vapor flux (net VIWVF) across SWC, together with vertical SA-based patterns of regional horizontal divergence (D) and vertical motion (ω), coincide well with pluvial-drought transition processes. (2) With respect to large-scale circulation patterns, a well-organized Eurasian (EU) Pattern is one important feature during the pluvial-drought transitions over SWC. (3) Based on these large-scale and regional atmospheric anomalous features, relevant SA-based indices were built, to explore the possibility of simulating drought development using previous pluvial anomalies. As a whole, simulated drought development only with SA-indices of large-scale circulation patterns does not perform well. Further, it can be improved a lot when SA-based indices of regional D and net VIWVF are introduced. (4) In addition, the potential drought prediction using pluvial anomalies, together with the deep understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for pluvial-drought transitions, need to be further explored.