LAUSR

Prediction of rupture and optimal timing for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgical intervention remain wanting even after decades of clinical, histological, and numerical research. Although studies estimating rupture from AAA geometrical features from CT imaging showed some promising results, they are still not being used in practice. Patient‐specific numerical stress analysis introduced too many assumptions about wall structure for the related rupture potential index (RPI) to be considered reliable. Growth and remodeling (G&R) numerical models eliminate some of these assumptions and thus might have the most potential to calculate mural stresses and RPI and increase our understanding of rupture. To recognize numerical models as trustworthy, it is necessary to validate the computed results with results derived from imaging. Elastin degradation function is one of the main factors that determine idealized aneurysm sac shape. Using a hundred different combinations of variables defining AAA geometry or influences AAA stability (elastin degradation function parameters, collagen mechanics, and initial healthy aortic diameters), we investigated the relationship between AAA morphology and RPI and compared numerical results with clinical findings. Good agreement of numerical results with clinical expectations from the literature gives us confidence in the validity of the numerical model. We show that aneurysm morphology significantly influences the stability of aneurysms. Additionally, we propose new parameters, geometrical rupture potential index (GRPI) and normalized aneurysm length (NAL), that might predict rupture of aneurysms without thrombus better than currently used criteria (i.e., maximum diameter and growth rate). These parameters can be computed quickly, without the tedious processing of CT images.