LAUSR

It is well documented that individuals of wild populations can adjust to climate change by means of phenotypic plasticity, but few reports on adaptation by means of genetically based microevolution caused by selection. Disentanglement of these separate effects requires that the environmental zero-point (reference environment) is defined, and this should not be done arbitrarily. The problem is that an error in the environmental zero-point may lead to large errors in predicted microevolution. Together with parameter values, the zero-point can be estimated from environmental, phenotypic and fitness data. A prediction error method for this purpose is described, with the feasibility shown by simulations. As shown in a toy example, an estimated environmental zero-point may have large errors, especially for small populations. This may still be a better choice than use of an initial environmental value in a recorded time series, or the mean value, which is often used. Another alternative may be to use the mean value of a past and stationary stochastic environment, which the population is judged to have been fully adapted to, in the sense that the expected geometric mean fitness was at a global maximum. Exceptions are cases with constant phenotypic plasticity, where the microevolutionary changes per generation follow directly from phenotypic and environmental data, independent of the chosen environmental zero-point.