LAUSR

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess in deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the next decades by cause of climate change. In this article, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy for climate change) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the United Kingdom. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The proposed model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (1992) model and its recent extensions, and for a very first time include exogenous factor which is a temperature-related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. This leads to more accurate pre-dictions of the future mortality rates and contributes to a better pricing of the life insurance and financial products.