LAUSR

According to traditional risk assessment methods it is impossible to have a quantitative analysis of the nonlinear relationship between uncertain factors of inter-basin reservoir regulation. So, fuzzy mathematics and a mixed Copula function are used in this paper to determine existing water supply indexes. The joint probability distribution of runoff forecasting and water demand is simulated and it also makes a quantitative analysis of future flows. The information entropy principle is applied to determine early risk warning index and signals, and emergency water shortage measures are established for an inter-basin water transfersupply operation. Then the early warning decision system of reservoir optimization water supply dispatching is built up. A practical example computation shows that the information of water supply and water shortage can be described effectively with such an early risk warning system regarding donor and recipient reservoirs. The early risk warning method is applied for the first time, which simultaneously takes into account water inflow, water utilization and water shortage regarding donor and recipient reservoirs. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. key words: inter-basin; multi-reservoir operation; early risk warning system; mixed Copula function; early warning signals; uncertain factor; emergency water shortage measures Received 19 June 2017; Revised 3 February 2018; Accepted 4 February 2018