LAUSR

Climate warming generally is expected to increase drought, but arguments about China's past drought trends persist. PDSIARTS, a revised self‐calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index, was computed for China over 1982–2016 using satellite leaf‐area indices combined with monthly climate data interpolated from 2000 high‐density stations. Drought climatology was analysed against climate factors. The results show that temperature has increased at a rate of 0.38°C per decade (p < .001) in China in the past 35 years (1982–2016). However, over the same interval, China and the northern China region became wetter. PDSIARTS increased at a rate of 0.03 yr−1 (p < .001) across China during 1982–2016. The analogous increase of PDSIARTS in northern China was 0.05 yr−1 (p < .001). In China, the 5‐year interval from 2012 to 2016 was the wettest 5 years in the 35‐year interval. This arises from the coupled effects of decreased potential evaporation (Ep) and increased precipitation (Pr). The implication is that temperature increase does not necessarily indicate increased drought. A potential complication is that the 2015/16 El Niño event induced the highest Pr in southern China for 1982–2016, and northern China still had plentiful Pr in 2015/16, which further contributed to the wettest 2‐years (2015/16) during the past 35 years in the whole of China. This study highlights the joint impacts of Pr and Ep on the dry/wet changes and the possibility of extremely wet events in the warming future.