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Identification of future meteorological drought hotspots over Indian region: A study based on NEX‐GDDP data

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The present study aims to answer the following two research questions using the future outputs from 19 GCMs of the novel NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) under… Click to show full abstract

The present study aims to answer the following two research questions using the future outputs from 19 GCMs of the novel NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. (a) What will be the possible variability of future meteorological drought properties during the 21st century? (b) What will be the possible influence of temperature in modulating the drought properties? In order to answer the above questions, five different drought properties namely frequency, severity, duration, peak, and areal spread are analysed for future (2022–2099) using two meteorological drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for short (3‐month scale) and long (12‐month scale) term drought conditions. The essential outcomes from the study indicate a warming and wetting climate over Maharashtra during the 21st century. With an increase in monthly precipitation, severity and duration of future meteorological droughts are likely to decrease in long‐term drought condition. Conversely, in the short‐term condition, the properties are expected to increase. The drought properties like peak and areal spread are expected to increase for both short and long‐term drought conditions in most of the regions. Temperature plays a vital role in modulating the meteorological droughts, and the present study notices the same in most of the cases in all the drought properties, especially in drought severity, duration, and peak. All the division are identified as hotspot regions during the mid and later part of the 21st century for short‐term drought condition. The number of hotspot regions decreases in long‐term drought condition as compared to short‐term drought condition.

Keywords: term drought; drought properties; drought; meteorological drought; term; future meteorological

Journal Title: International Journal of Climatology
Year Published: 2021

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