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Establishment and Analysis of a Brucellosis Model Based on Detection Behavior and Patches

Brucellosis, a zoonosis disease with major impacts on public health and livestock production, remains difficult to control. Under current epidemic conditions, livestock movement across regions and imperfect detection allows infected… Click to show full abstract

Brucellosis, a zoonosis disease with major impacts on public health and livestock production, remains difficult to control. Under current epidemic conditions, livestock movement across regions and imperfect detection allows infected animals to spread, sustaining transmission and hindering containment. To address this, we developed a multipatch dynamical framework that incorporates sheep transport and detection behaviors and assessed the impact of sheep transport on brucellosis control. For the single‐patch model, we derived the basic reproduction number, analyzed the stability of the disease‐free equilibrium, and established the presence of a forward bifurcation together with uniform persistence. For the multipatch models, we further derived the basic reproduction number and examined the stability of the disease‐free equilibrium. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a significant positive correlation between the transmission rate of asymptomatic carriers and the basic reproduction number, while detection rates exhibited a negative correlation with pathogen importation. Numerical simulations highlighted the critical role of transport restriction measures in disease control, and optimal controls are region‐specific. In particular, livestock‐importing regions benefit most from inflow restrictions coupled with strengthened surveillance, while livestock‐exporting regions depend primarily on enhanced local surveillance and response capacity. These findings provide quantitative guidance for brucellosis prevention in pastoral regions.

Keywords: detection; basic reproduction; analysis; model; reproduction number; brucellosis

Journal Title: Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences
Year Published: 2025

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