LAUSR

BACKGROUND Rugose spiraling whitefly (RSW), Aleurodicus rugioperculatus Martin is a highly polyphagous invasive pests native to Central America. The occurrence of A. rugioperculatus in oriental region was reported for the first time from India, Pollachi, Tamil Nadu in 2017. It is widely distributed in India, causing severe economic damage to coconut and other horticultural crops. This pest is a recent invasion in India and the information on its potential distribution is lacking. Thus, in the present study we used the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset through MaxEnt to determine the potential distribution of RSW in present and future climate change scenarios in 2050 and 2070 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 126 and SSP585 emission scenario. Performance of the model was evaluated using Area Under the Curve (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS) and continuous Boyce index (CBI) RESULTS: The MaxEnt model performed well and predicted the potential distribution of A. rugioperculatus with high accuracy AUC values of 0.991 and 0.989, TSS of 0.891 and 0.842, CBI of 0.972 and 0.934 for training and testing, respectively. Jackknife analysis revealed that A. rugioperculatus distribution was mostly influenced by temperature based bioclimatic variables contributing 62.1% of the suitability with precipitation variables contributing the remainder. The most important bioclimatic variables for RSW distribution was annual mean temperature (Bio 1; 28.9%) followed by mean diurnal range (Bio 2: 19.5%) and annual precipitation (Bio 12: 19.1) Potential suitable areas for RSW establishment were mostly found in the entire coastal and southern states of India. A. rugioperculatus prefers warm and humid climate which indicates that tropics, subtropics and temperate regions are ideal for its spread and invasion. Our results highlighted that suitable habitat area for A. rugioperculatus is predicted to increase and highest probability of invasion and spread in 2050 and 2070 under future climate change scenarios of SSP126 and SSP585 compared to present climatic conditions. CONCLUSIONS This is the first study used latest CMIP6 models and predicted potential distribution of RSW in India under present and future climate change scenarios. Implementing strict domestic quarantine measures may prevent the spread and damage of RSW to non-coastal regions of India. Results of the current study would help in timely monitoring and surveillance of RSW and to formulate integrated pest management strategies at the national level to restrict its spread, invasion and damage to new areas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.