LAUSR

Under the responsibility of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of La Réunion, the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) has tropical cyclone activity close to that of the North Atlantic. Like most territories of the SWIO basin, La Réunion island is highly vulnerable to cyclone‐induced hazards and the potential impact of nearby storms is closely related to their track and intensity evolution. Although storm track and intensity forecasts have been steadily improving in the last decades, a great amount of uncertainty remains. Operational centres have therefore developed probabilistic products such as uncertainty cones for the prediction of storm track and intensity over the different cyclone basins. Unfortunately, the cone approach does not fully match the end‐user needs for efficient decision‐making.