LAUSR

Abstract Background With the increasing use of medications that alter the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB), comprising aspirin, proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), and Helicobacter pylori eradication therapies, the trends of GIB are evolving. Objective The aim of this study is to determine and predict the trends of GIB and to evaluate the effects of population prescriptions of these medications on GIB incidences. Methods We retrieved patients hospitalized for GIB in all public hospitals in Hong Kong between 2009 and 2019. Monthly age‐ and sex‐standardized GIB data were fitted and predicted, based on population prescriptions of aspirin, nonsteroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), anticoagulants, other antiplatelet drugs, PPIs, and H. pylori therapies, using autoregressive integrated moving average model for time series analysis. Results The incidence of upper GIB (UGIB) showed a clear declining trend while lower GIB (LGIB) decreased slightly. Older population (>80 years) had the greatest decline in UGIB but was associated with an increase in LGIB. Prescriptions of PPIs and aspirin increased significantly with time. PPIs prescriptions were negatively associated with UGIB incidence (coefficient log(PPIs) −4.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: −5.69, −3.47). H. pylori eradication in the previous month showed a nonsignificant trend on UGIB (coefficient −0.14; 95% CI: −0.30, 0.02). In contrast, aspirin increased the incidences of UGIB (coefficient 0.06; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.07) and LGIB (coefficient 0.04; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.05). NSAIDs, anticoagulants, and other antiplatelet drugs were not significantly associated with the trend of either UGIB or LGIB. UGIB is predicted to decline continuously but LGIB is projected to rise, particularly with increasing use of aspirin. Conclusions UGIB incidences were decreasing and had been surpassed by LGIB. Based on population prescriptions of aspirin and PPIs, divergent trends of upper and lower GIB are expected, especially in elderly.