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Bayesian estimation of bidding process and bidder’s preference under shape restrictions

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This paper applies a novel nonparametric estimator to the modeling of auctions subject to shape restrictions. In particular, we employ a Bayesian estimator with a Gaussian process prior parameterized by… Click to show full abstract

This paper applies a novel nonparametric estimator to the modeling of auctions subject to shape restrictions. In particular, we employ a Bayesian estimator with a Gaussian process prior parameterized by a spectral representation. We use squared Gaussian processes to model the functional derivatives and therefore are able to impose global shape restrictions. Our first application is the estimation of a monotonically increasing bidding process of online auctions. The second application concerns the estimation of bidders’ risk-averse latent preferences in sealed-bid timber auctions. The results show that the shape-constrained estimator not only ensures the conformity with economic theories but also improves estimation precision.

Keywords: estimation; shape; shape restrictions; bayesian estimation; bidding process

Journal Title: Empirical Economics
Year Published: 2020

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