LAUSR

SummaryCompared with vertebrae without deformity, vertebrae with mild/moderate deformity have a higher risk of endplate or/and cortex fracture (ecf). Compared with subjects without ecf, subjects with ecf are at a higher risk of short-term (4-year period) deformity progression and new incident deformity.IntroductionThe progression and incidence of osteoporotic vertebral deformity/fracture (VD/VF) in elderly Chinese females remain not well documented.MethodsSpine radiographs of 1533 Chinese females with baseline and year-4 follow-up (mean age 75.7 years) were evaluated according to Genant’s VD criteria and endplate/cortex fracture (non-existent: ecf0 or existent: ecf1). Grade-2 VDs were divided into mild (vd2m, 25–34% height loss) and severe (vd2s, 34–40% height loss) subgroups. According to their VD/VF, subjects were graded into seven categories: vd0/ecf0, vd1/ecf0, vd2m/ecf0, vd1/ecf1, vd2m/ecf1, vd2s/ecf1, and vd3/ecf1. With an existing VD, a further height loss of ≥ 15% was a VD progression. A new incident VD was a change from grade-0 to grade-2/3 or to grade-1 with ≥ 10% height loss.ResultsOf subjects with Genant’s grades 0, − 1, − 2, and − 3 VD, at follow-up, 4.6%, 8%, 10.6%, and 28.9% had at least one VD progression or new incident VD respectively. Among the three ecf0 groups, there was no difference in VD progression or new VD; while there was a significant difference in new ecf incidence, with vd0/ecf0 being lowest and vd2m/ecf0 being highest. Vd1/ecf0 and vd2m/ecf0 vertebrae had a higher risk of turning to ecf1 than vd0/ecf0 vertebrae. If vd1/ecf0 and vd2m/ecf0 subjects were combined together (range 20–34% height loss) to compare with vd1/ecf1 and vd2m/ecf1 subjects, the latter had significantly higher VD progression and new VD rates.ConclusionVertebrae with grade-1/2 VDs had a higher risk of developing ECF. Subjects with pre-existing ECFs had a higher risk of worsening or new vertebral deformities.