LAUSR

The variability of the winter sea ice cover of the Labrador Sea region and its links to atmospheric and oceanic forcing are investigated using observational data, a coupled ocean–sea ice model and a fully-coupled model simulation drawn from the CMIP5 archive. A consistent series of mechanisms associated with high sea ice cover are found amongst the various data sets. The highest values of sea ice area occur when the northern Labrador Sea is ice covered. This region is found to be primarily thermodynamically forced, contrasting with the dominance of mechanical forcing along the eastern coast of Baffin Island and Labrador, and the growth of sea ice is associated with anomalously fresh local ocean surface conditions. Positive fresh water anomalies are found to propagate to the region from a source area off the southeast Greenland coast with a 1 month transit time. These anomalies are associated with sea ice melt, driven by the enhanced offshore transport of sea ice in the source region, and its subsequent westward transport in the Irminger Current system. By combining sea ice transport through the Denmark Strait in the preceding autumn with the Greenland Blocking Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, strong correlation with the Labrador Sea ice area of the following winter is obtained. This relationship represents a dependence on the availability of sea ice to be melted in the source region, the necessary atmospheric forcing to transport this offshore, and a further multidecadal-scale link with the large-scale sea surface temperature conditions.