LAUSR.org creates dashboard-style pages of related content for over 1.5 million academic articles. Sign Up to like articles & get recommendations!

Risk analysis for water resources management under dual uncertainties through factorial analysis and fuzzy random value-at-risk

Photo by a2eorigins from unsplash

Water resources systems are associated with a variety of complexities and uncertainties due to socio-economic and hydro-environmental impacts. Such complexities and uncertainties lead to challenges in evaluating the water resources… Click to show full abstract

Water resources systems are associated with a variety of complexities and uncertainties due to socio-economic and hydro-environmental impacts. Such complexities and uncertainties lead to challenges in evaluating the water resources management alternatives and the associated risks. In this study, the factorial analysis and fuzzy random value-at-risk are incorporated into a two-stage stochastic programming framework, leading to a factorial-based two-stage programming with fuzzy random value-at-risk (FTSPF). The proposed FTSPF approach aims to reveal the impacts of uncertainty parameters on water resources management strategies and the corresponding risks. In detail, fuzzy random value-at-risk is to reflect the potential risk about financial cost under dual uncertainties, while a multi-level factorial design approach is used to reveal the interaction between feasibility degrees and risk levels, as well as the relationships (including curvilinear relationship) between these factors and the responses. The application of water resources system planning makes it possible to balance the satisfaction of system benefit, the risk levels of penalty and the feasibility degrees of constraints. The results indicate that decision makers would pay more attention to the tradeoffs between the system benefit and feasibility degree, and the water allocation for agricultural section contributes most to control the financial loss of water. Moreover, FTSPF can generate a higher system benefit and more alternatives under various risk levels. Therefore, FTSPF could provide more useful information for enabling water managers to identify desired policies with maximized system benefit under different system-feasibility degrees and risk levels.

Keywords: fuzzy random; risk; water; analysis; water resources; random value

Journal Title: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Year Published: 2017

Link to full text (if available)


Share on Social Media:                               Sign Up to like & get
recommendations!

Related content

More Information              News              Social Media              Video              Recommended



                Click one of the above tabs to view related content.