LAUSR.org creates dashboard-style pages of related content for over 1.5 million academic articles. Sign Up to like articles & get recommendations!

Underdetection in a stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic

Photo by thinkmagically from unsplash

We propose a way to model the underdetection of infected and removed individuals in a compartmental model for estimating the COVID-19 epidemic. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a stochastic… Click to show full abstract

We propose a way to model the underdetection of infected and removed individuals in a compartmental model for estimating the COVID-19 epidemic. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse data from the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. We find that a correct assessment of the amount of underdetection is important to obtain reliable estimates of the critical model parameters. The adaptation of the model in each time interval between relevant government decrees implementing contagion mitigation measures provides short-term predictions and a continuously updated assessment of the basic reproduction number.

Keywords: underdetection stochastic; sir model; underdetection; model; stochastic sir

Journal Title: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Year Published: 2021

Link to full text (if available)


Share on Social Media:                               Sign Up to like & get
recommendations!

Related content

More Information              News              Social Media              Video              Recommended



                Click one of the above tabs to view related content.