LAUSR

This paper presents an advanced 3D numerical methodology to reproduce the kinematics of slow active landslides, more precisely, to reproduce the nearly constant strain rate (secondary creep) and the acceleration/deceleration of the moving mass due to hydrological changes. For this purpose, finite element analyses are performed in a large area covering a long time-span (12 years), in order to exhibit different interacting slope movements. First, we perform a stability analysis using the shear strength reduction (SSR) technique with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria. It is done in order to compute factors of safety (FS) and to identify two different scenarios, the first one being stable (FS > 1) and the second one being unstable (FS < 1). In the studied test case, the Portalet landslide (Central Spanish Pyrenees), the first scenario corresponds to an initial stable configuration of the slope and the second one to an unstable excavated configuration. Second, taking the first scenario as an initial condition, a time-dependent analysis is performed using a coupled formulation to model solid skeleton and pore fluids interaction, and a simplified ground water model that takes into account daily rainfall intensity. In this case, a viscoplastic constitutive model based on Perzyna’s theory is applied to reproduce soil viscous behavior and the delayed creep deformation due to the excavation. The fluidity parameter is calibrated to reproduce displacements measured by the monitoring systems. Our results demonstrate that 3D analyses are preferable to 2D ones for reproducing in a more realistic way the slide behavior. After calibration, the proposed model is able to simulate successfully short- and medium-term predictions during stages of primary and secondary creep.