LAUSR

Concentrations of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in lakes may be differentially impacted by climate-driven changes in nutrient loading and by direct impacts of temperature and wind speed on internal nutrient cycling. Such changes may result in systematic shifts in lake N:P under future climate warming. We used 21 years of monitoring data to compare long-term and intra-annual trends in total N (TN), total P (TP) and TN:TP at 15 sites in Lake Champlain to concurrent measurements of watershed nutrient inputs and meteorological drivers. TN:TP declined sharply lake-wide, particularly in the past decade, yet the drivers of this trend varied based on site depth. In deep sites, declines were driven by changes in watershed loading of dissolved P and N and (in some cases) by decreases in hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen. In shallow sites, declines in TN:TP were primarily driven by long-term increases in temperature and decreases in wind speed, and exhibited systematic seasonal variability in TN:TP due to the timing of sediment P loading, N removal processes, and external nutrient inputs. We developed a conceptual model to explain the observed trends, and suggest that while climate drivers have affected nutrient dynamics in shallow and deep sites differently, both deep and shallow sites are likely to experience further declines in N:P and increases in cyanobacteria dominance if recent climate trends continue.