LAUSR

Probabilistic event attribution aims to attribute weather events to anthropogenic forcings. Some claim the development of this methodology is motivated by social utility rather than scientific understanding. I trace the evolution of arguments for probabilistic event attribution’s social usefulness from their origins in private climate change litigation through adaptive decision-making, and end with the methodology’s relevance for addressing loss and damage due to extreme events. I show that probabilistic event attribution is unlikely to substantially contribute to litigation or adaptation, and while it is potentially relevant for addressing loss and damage, securing a lasting role in this context requires answering some key questions regarding event attribution’s capacities and deployment.