LAUSR

This paper explores the predictability of a Bak–Tang–Wiesenfeld isotropic sandpile on a self-similar lattice, introducing an algorithm which predicts the occurrence of target events when the stress in the system crosses a critical level. The model exhibits the self-organized critical dynamics characterized by the power-law segment of the size-frequency event distribution extended up to the sizes $$\sim L^{\beta }$$ , $$\beta = \log _3 5$$ , where L is the lattice length. We establish numerically that there are large events which are observed only in a super-critical state and, therefore, predicted efficiently. Their sizes fill in the interval with the left endpoint scaled as $$L^{\alpha }$$ and located to the right from the power-law segment: $$\alpha \approx 2.24 > \beta $$ . The right endpoint scaled as $$L^3$$ represents the largest event in the model. The mechanism of predictability observed with isotropic sandpiles is shown here for the first time.