LAUSR

I began my undergraduate degree in ‘Systems and Management’ at City University, London, in 1979. Of the many course books that I read in the first year, two stand out above all others: The Limits to Growth by the Club of Rome, and Tools for Thought by Conrad Hal Waddington. Limits presents system dynamics model simulations of exponential economic and population growth and some of the possible consequences of this, such as resource depletion, food shortages, waste mountains, and ultimate collapse. By today’s standards, the model, and the computer power to drive the model, respectively, were simple and primitive, but the message was profound. There were many disparaging criticisms of Limits, about it being simplistic, not considering human ingenuity to solve problems ‘on the go’, and that the models were a poor representation of reality. Of course, models of that era and even of today cannot precisely represent and simulate the consequences of human activity. However, the critics miss the fundamental point of it all, that growth cannot go on forever, that there must be some limits, and that this is no more than common systemic sense. Tools presents the scientific techniques of its time in a readily understandable fashion and was quite suited, for example, to a first-year undergraduate student. Its focus is complexity and dealing with complexity, with a focus on cybernetics and systems. Tools engaged with Limits in a highly constructive fashion, addressing the ‘complex of complexes’ and the difficulties in knowing which interactions to model, how these interactions change over time, and the uncertainties in model outcomes. BUT it stressed that the models help us to learn about types of behaviour that might happen, possible outcomes, and that these behaviours and outcomes are further ingredients for thought, not failings of a model. More than anything else, though, Waddington’s dislike of the conventional wisdom of the dominant group, or, as he phrased it, COWDUNG, resonated strongly with my thoughts – a dislike for the unquestioning adherence to convention. Systemic Practice and Action Research https://doi.org/10.1007/s11213-021-09558-9