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Development and Validation of a Novel Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Postoperative Intraabdominal Abscess after Laparoscopic Appendectomy

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Data were collected prospectively from all patients undergoing LA between 2006 and 2019. Demographics and surgical outcomes were analyzed. Complicated appendicitis was defined as a gangrenous or perforated appendix, and… Click to show full abstract

Data were collected prospectively from all patients undergoing LA between 2006 and 2019. Demographics and surgical outcomes were analyzed. Complicated appendicitis was defined as a gangrenous or perforated appendix, and severe peritonitis as the presence of pus in ≥ 2 abdominal quadrants. Postoperative IAA was confirmed by CT scan in all cases. The series was randomly divided into a training cohort (70%) and an internal validation cohort (30%). A logistic regression model with 13 potential risk factors for IAA was performed in the training cohort. A nomogram including all statistically significant risk factors was created based on a proportionally conversion of each regression coefficient in the multivariate logistic regression to a 0 to 100-point scale. The low-, intermediate-, and high-risk estimated groups were created by stratifying the cohort in percentiles (< 80th percentile, between the 80th and 95th percentile, and > 95th percentile, respectively). The performance of the model was then evaluated in the validation cohort with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and its associated sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC). All statistical analyses were done using the R software version 4.0.1. A p value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Keywords: validation novel; risk; development validation; cohort; novel nomogram

Journal Title: Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery
Year Published: 2021

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