LAUSR

Abstract The impact of climate change on agricultural yield is one amongst the major concerns the world is witnessing. Our study focusses on rice yield prediction for an agricultural research station in Kerala with the help of climate change scenario input from the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Global Climate Model (GCM) projection under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We have used Cropping System Model (CSM) Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) Rice within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) package for predicting the yield. Our study has the novelty of using very high-resolution climate data from a model which is highly skilful in capturing the present-day climate features and climatic trends over India (in particular, over the Western Ghats), as input for simulating the future crop yield. From this study, we find that the rice yield decreases due to rise in temperature and reduction in rainfall, thereby reducing the crops maturity time in the future. Based on our results, the adaptation measures suggested to achieve better yield under future warming conditions are: (i) to opt for alternative rice varieties which have tolerance to high temperatures and consume less water, and (ii) shifting of planting date to the most appropriate window. Highlights 1. Impact study of future climate change on rice yield is carried out using CERES Rice Cropping System Model after systematic validation. 2. Highly reliable climate change information from the projection by a 20-km resolution global climate model of MRI which is remarkably skilful in simulating the present-day Indian climate, is used as input for the crop model. 3. Rice yield is found to decrease in future due to rise in temperature and reduction in rainfall, thereby reducing the crops maturity time. 4. Adaptive measures of opting for temperature tolerant, high yielding rice varieties which consume less water and shifting of planting date to an appropriate window, are suggested to achieve better yield.