LAUSR

Observations and predictions regarding oceanic intrusions at the entrance to Puget Sound, WA (USA), are presented. Four years of seabed observations at Admiralty Inlet show episodic periods high salinity, coincident with landward residual currents near the seabed. The observed residual currents are consistent with an estuarine exchange flow during minimal tidal mixing, coincident with neap currents and maximum diurnal inequalities. These subtidal intrusions can carry dense water into Puget Sound and, thereby, renew the bottom water that is trapped landward of the sill. The oxygen concentration levels of these intrusions are often low, though not hypoxic, and may influence the oxygen levels in Puget Sound. The water mass properties of these intrusions are influenced strongly by regional dynamics, because the entrance to Puget Sound is connected to the open ocean via the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Coastal upwelling and discharge from the Fraser River discharge control the exchange flow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and thus control the availability of dense water at the entrance to Puget Sound. The net effect of the tidal and regional dynamics is for intrusions with low oxygen levels to prevail in the late summer months. To predict intrusions in future years, an empirical method is developed and validated for daily application. The prediction method is based on publicly available operational data products and does not require in situ observations. In verification, 98% of intrusion events with dissolved oxygen less than 4.0 mg/L are successfully identified in a hindcast prediction for the 4-year observational record.