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Evaluation of the impact on European air traffic by uncontrolled reentering spacecraft with initial state uncertainty

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The area of spaceflight, especially human space flight, experienced a change in the past decades. Due to the privatization of space flight, many advances were provided and human space flight… Click to show full abstract

The area of spaceflight, especially human space flight, experienced a change in the past decades. Due to the privatization of space flight, many advances were provided and human space flight was pushed forward. The number of spaceflight and spaceports has increased as well as the interest in space tourism. General feasibility studies of space tourism were performed by different authors considering safety aspects, planning or the integration of spacecraft into air traffic. An efficient and safe integration is mandatory to minimize the risk on human life and to sustain a steady air traffic. Nevertheless, an optimal integration of spacecraft into air traffic may be disturbed by unexpected happenings. Within this paper, a scenario is considered, where a spacecraft sustains malfunctions in the control mechanism just before reentering the atmosphere. The reentry is considered to be uncontrolled, whereas the initial state vector of the spacecraft is varied randomly. The resulting on-ground distribution is evaluated for an exemplary scenario and the impact on European air traffic is simplified estimated by the definition of a temporary flight restriction.

Keywords: spacecraft; air traffic; space; initial state

Journal Title: CEAS Aeronautical Journal
Year Published: 2019

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