LAUSR

Climate changes seem to have adverse impacts on food security. Oilseeds are the second largest food group in the world after cereals. Soybean is the main oilseed crop in Iran mainly cultivated for edible oil and meal. The potential effect of climate change on soybean production is, however, not well addressed. This study aimed to quantify the effects of climate change on soybean yield in major producing provinces in Iran using the panel econometric approach and the General Climate Models (GCMs). For this purpose, the climatological data of three meteorological stations, i.e., Ardabil, Golestan, Mazandaran were gathered over 1980–2012. Besides, the soybean economic data obtained from Iran Ministry of Agriculture were used. LARS-WG 6.0 was applied to downscale the outputs of five GCMs under RCP-8.5 for 2021–2040. The results revealed that climate change would affect the soybean yield but effects differ across parameters. The projected climate parameters showed that the mean of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation would increase for all provinces. Maximum temperature and precipitation had a positive significant effect on soybean yield, while minimum temperature affected the yield negatively. Using the obtained equation for soybean yield and the projected climatic factors over the early twenty-first century (i.e., 2021–2040), a relative average increase of 330, 500 and 260 kg per hectare in soybean yield was projected over the next 20 years in Ardabil, Golestan and Mazandaran provinces, respectively. These results can help decision makers in adapting land and water policies to climate change.