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Statistical error propagation in HTR burnup model

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Abstract In this study we use independent replica calculations in order to assess statistical error propagation in whole-core actinide-burner High Temperature Reactor model. We use the MCB5 code for modeling… Click to show full abstract

Abstract In this study we use independent replica calculations in order to assess statistical error propagation in whole-core actinide-burner High Temperature Reactor model. We use the MCB5 code for modeling a single irradiation cycle with reactivity control. We made 100 simulations of representative neutron precision, each having different initial random number generator seed. We analyze the real-to-apparent tally variation for neutron multiplication factor and nuclear reaction rates. While k eff uncertainty is well-predicted, local reaction uncertainties have exhibited under-prediction of several times since the very beginning of irradiation. Additionally, we correlate the increasing dominance ratio with the emergence of numerical instability and source convergence problems at a high burnup. Our conclusions indicate that the neutron cycle-to-cycle correlation must be considered by code users dealing with computationally expensive HTR models.

Keywords: error propagation; burnup; model; statistical error

Journal Title: Annals of Nuclear Energy
Year Published: 2017

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