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Forecasting COVID-19 Infection Trends and New Hospital Admissions in Spain due to SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern Omicron

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Spain has been among the hardest hit countries by COVID-19 worldwide, particularly during the first wave and the ongoing sixth wave.1 There have been several successful attempts to forecast trends… Click to show full abstract

Spain has been among the hardest hit countries by COVID-19 worldwide, particularly during the first wave and the ongoing sixth wave.1 There have been several successful attempts to forecast trends of incidence and mortality of COVID-19, most based upon knowledge on viral dynamics from previous pandemics, recent COVID-19 geographical information of diverse granularity, and newly discovered viral characteristics.2–4 However, SARS-CoV-2 inherent poor quality RNAm copy-editing gene replication makes it prone to mutate and spontaneously create new variants of concern (VoC) (Fig. 1),5 that adapt to any hostile environment, produce new outbreaks, and modify existing epidemiological projections.6 On November 26, 2021, WHO designated the variant B.1.1.529 as a new VoC, named Omicron, originally identified in South Africa,7 on the evidence that mutations in Omicron may have an impact on how it spreads, resistance to vaccination, or the severity of illness it causes.8 In particular, in South Africa up to December 2, 2021 it was

Keywords: sars cov; infection trends; covid infection; trends new; concern; forecasting covid

Journal Title: Archivos De Bronconeumologia
Year Published: 2022

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