LAUSR

Abstract Municipal solid waste (MSW) contains considerable hazardous components and the widely-distributed open MSW burning in heavily-populated urban areas can cause direct exposure of hazardous materials to citizens. By determining the best available representation of composition-varying and time-varying emission factors with fuzzy mathematics method and S-shape curves, a comprehensive atmospheric emission inventories of 9 typical toxic heavy metals (THMs, e.g. mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), selenium (Se), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and nickel (Ni)) from open MSW burning activities in China is established during the period of 2000–2013 for the first time. Further, the emissions in 2013 are allocated at a high spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° grid by surrogate indexes. The results show that 9 typical THMs emissions from open MSW burning are estimated at 21.25 t for Hg, 131.52 t for As, 97.12 t for Pb, 10.12 t for Cd, 50.58 t for Cr, 81.95 t for Se, 382.42 t for Cu, 1790.70 t for Zn, and 43.50 t for Ni, respectively. In terms of spatial variation, the majority of emissions are concentrated in relatively developed and densely-populated regions, especially for the eastern, central and southern regions. Moreover, future emissions are also projected for the period of 2015–2030 based on different scenarios of the independent and collaborative effects of control proposals including minimizing waste, improving MSW incineration ratio, and enhancing waste sorting and recycling, etc. The collaborative effect of the above proposals is expected to bring the most effective reduction to THMs emissions from open MSW burning in China except for Hg. The results will be supplementary to all anthropogenic emissions and useful for relevant policy-making and the improvement of urban air quality as well as human health.