LAUSR

Abstract The upper reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin (HM-CSNWTP) is the headwater source for the middle route of China's South-to-North Water Transfer Project (M-CSNWTP), as well as the north-south transitional zone of central China, and is characterized by high precipitation sensitivity and variability. Changes in precipitation patterns can affect the potential runoff generation capacity of the HM-CSNWTP. Therefore, this study was focused on exploring the dynamic precipitation patterns over the HM-CSNWTP and the potential runoff generation capacity of this region at annual and seasonal timescales. Daily precipitation data from 34 meteorological stations for the period 1961–2016 were collected in order to estimate 4 categories of rainfall indices: average daily precipitation on all days (ADP) and on rainy days (ARP), total amount (TP), and rainy days (TD). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, LOWESS smoothing, and collaborative kriging method were implemented. The statistical results indicated that: (1) The annual ADP over the basin decreased slightly, at the rate of −0.22%/10a (−0.002 mm/d/a). Seasonally, summer ADP increased by 1.4%/10a (0.005 mm/d/a), while decreasing ADP values were detected in other seasons. Large increases in annual and summer ARP were found, at rates of 3.73%/10a (0.018 mm/d/a) and 3.72%/10a (0.039 mm/d/a), over the HM-CSNWTP, mainly in the southwestern area (Region III), due to the large changes of annual and summer ARP. Annual and summer ARP increased at significant rates of 7.22%/10a (0.034 mm/d/a) and 10.64%/10a (0.083 mm/d/a), respectively. (2) Decreasing light rainfall amounts (TP0-10) and days (TD0-10), and increasing heavy rainfall amounts (TP>25) and days (TD>25) were detected over the HM-CSNWTP, especially for Region III, in which TP>25 and TD>25 increased by 7.00%/10a (1.076 mm/a) and 5.37%/10a (0.023 d/a), respectively. (3) In the wettest assumption scenario, the estimated annual, spring, summer, autumn, and winter runoff depths were 912.9 mm, 183.0 mm, 410.6 mm, 259.0 mm, and 60.3 mm, respectively. In the driest assumption, the estimated annual, spring, summer, autumn, and winter runoff depths were 131.4 mm, 35.6 mm, 65.7 mm, 27.8 mm, and 2.3 mm, respectively, and the planned diversion water accounted for 76.1%, 63.2%, 70.0%, 102.2%, and 156.5% of the annual and seasonal driest assumption runoff depths, respectively. Thus, the water diversion of the M-CSNWTP in the driest assumption may trigger water shortages and environmental disasters in the lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin, especially at annual, autumn, and winter timescales. These findings provide some basic information for local water resource management in the HM-CSNWTP.