LAUSR

Abstract Increasing evidence indicates that distribution of Neotropical seasonally dry forests (NSDFs) and the survival of the species and communities that inhabit them have been negatively affected by land-use modifications and global climate change (GCC). Protected Areas (PAs) in the region are inefficient and insufficient, and these human-driven threats are expected to further diminish their effectiveness. Research on the long-term effectiveness of these areas for NSDFs protection is therefore a high priority. Here, using birds as a study group, we combined both species distribution modelling and systematic conservation planning techniques to delineate priority areas where species are predicted to persist into the 2050's in the face of GCC and land conversion across the NSDFs distribution. These analyses showed an imperative need to improve the performance of PAs, which covered only ~11% of the NSDFs area and included on average just 13% of species' remaining distributions in the 2050's. The most important opportunity for improving NSDFs conservation status is provided by protecting ~6% more surface area, which could increase the level of protection in the near future: 24.8–28.2% of species distributions on average and 36.9–39.5% for those threatened and Data Deficit species. Besides, 21.6% for these proposed areas coincide with areas currently defined as priority for NSDFs, and 22.8% coincides with priority areas for conservation and research of terrestrial vertebrates. The priority areas identified are mainly distributed in Mexico (70.8%). Our findings pinpoint major opportunities for efficient conservation planning in the region, if there is political will to do so.