LAUSR

Abstract Pereskia aculeata Miller (Cactaceae) is an invasive alien cactus which has negative impacts on indigenous plant biodiversity in South Africa. Catorhintha schaffneri Barilovsky & Garcia (Coreidae), the pereskia stem-wilter, was collected at coastal sites in the subtropical region of Santa Catarina state in southern Brazil and released as a biological control agent to control P. aculeata, in South Africa, in 2014. The introduced distribution of P. aculeata covers a wide variety of climatic conditions which was expected to influence the establishment success of the new agent. The thermal tolerance of C. schaffneri was investigated by developing a degree-day model and calculating the thermal limits of the species. The influence of humidity on egg hatchability and adult survival was also investigated. These data were then used to determine where the agent was likely to establish in South Africa using both weather station and microclimate temperature data. To ground-truth these predictions, sixteen release sites were selected covering a wide range of climatic conditions in the introduced distribution. Three releases of 30 adult C. schaffneri were conducted at each site and population establishment was recorded. Field establishment was recorded at only two of the sixteen experimental release sites. Low winter temperatures were predicted to prevent establishment at seven of the sixteen sites, but nine sites were considered climatically suitable according to the agent’s thermal physiology. Low rainfall and humidity could explain why the agent did not survive at some sites with suitable thermal climates. Many of the thermally suitable sites were affected by a severe drought over the course of the experiment, so further releases during periods with average rainfall and humidity are warranted and could confirm whether the drought was a significant factor influencing the failure of the agent to establish. Although climatic-matching and thermal physiology studies are valuable for tentative predictions of establishment success, there are numerous variables involved that require ground-truthing. Releasing the agent over a wide range of climatic zones believed to be within the thermal limits of the agent, and following releases with detailed post-release evaluations may be the best method of determining where future releases should be focused.