LAUSR

Abstract This study investigated the impacts of the temperature change on the length of heating period (HL), the starting date (HS) and the ending date for heating (HE), and the heating degree-days (HDD) in the central heating zone of China. By using the outputs from regional climate model, the future changes of four heating indices were quantitatively assessed. The results show that the regional mean HL in the central heating zone exhibits a decreasing trend during 2006–2050 under RCP4.5 due to the later HS and the earlier HE, and the decreasing rate of HL is 1.9d/10a. The regional mean HDD significantly decreases at a rate of 63.2 °C·d/10a during 2006–2050. There are apparent differences in the responses of HL and HDD to temperature change in different regions. An obvious decrease of HL is observed in the south and the HDD significantly decreases in the Tibetan Plateau and northeast severe cold areas. These results suggest that different heating strategies should be adopted according to different climate conditions. Considering the present-day mean HDD, the energy-saving potential in the future is larger in the south while the energy consumption demand for heating is larger in the severe cold areas.