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Temporal trends in competing mortality from second and subsequent primary cancers, 1980-2014: An Australian population-based study.

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BACKGROUND Subsequent primary cancers (SPCs) compete with first cancers and non-cancer events as the primary cause of death among cancer patients. We aimed to assess temporal trends in SPC mortality… Click to show full abstract

BACKGROUND Subsequent primary cancers (SPCs) compete with first cancers and non-cancer events as the primary cause of death among cancer patients. We aimed to assess temporal trends in SPC mortality since 1980 among adult-onset cancer patients in competing risk models. METHODS Patients registered with a first cancer in the population-based Tasmanian Cancer Registry, Australia, between 1980-2009 were followed up to December 2014. Cumulative incidence function (CIF) was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of cause-specific deaths in the presence of competing risks. The hazard ratios of SPC-specific deaths were assessed in two regression models: subdistribution hazard ratios from competing risk models (SHRs) and hazard ratios from Cox models (CHRs). RESULTS Overall, 5339 (9.3%) of 57,288 patients developed SPCs and 2494 died from SPCs during the follow-up. While the cumulative incidence of first cancer deaths at 5, 10, 15 and 20-years gradually decreased over periods of first cancer diagnosis, the cumulative incidence of SPC deaths did not. The SHRs for SPC-specific deaths increased from the reference period 1980-1984 to a peak for first cancers diagnosed in 1995-1999 (SHR = 1.18, 95%CI 1.03-1.35), before a decrease in 2005-2009 (SHR = 0.82, 95%CI 0.70-0.95) in competing risk models. However, this pattern was not consistent in CHRs. For individuals with specific first cancers, those with a first prostate cancer in 1995-1999 ha d the greatest SPC mortality risk (SHR = 2.08, 95%CI 1.29-3.36). CONCLUSION Competing risk models, but not Cox models, demonstrated temporal increases in SPC-specific mortality. Greater detection of non-fatal first prostate cancers appears to have contributed to this trend.

Keywords: temporal trends; risk; primary cancers; subsequent primary; cancer; competing risk

Journal Title: Cancer epidemiology
Year Published: 2018

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