LAUSR

Abstract Permafrost soils store enormous quantities of organic carbon. Especially on the alpine Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, global warming induces strong permafrost thawing, which strengthens the microbial decomposition of organic carbon and the emission of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Enhanced respiration rates may intensify climate warming in turn, but the magnitude of future CO 2 emissions from this data-scarce region in a changing climate remains highly uncertain. Here, we aim at an area-wide estimation of future potential CO 2 emissions for the permafrost region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as key region for climate change studies due to its size and sensitiveness. We calculated four potential soil respiration scenarios for 2050 and 2070 each. Using a regression model, results from laboratory experiments and C stock estimations from other studies, we provide an approximation of total potential soil CO 2 emissions on a regional scale ranging from 737.90 g CO 2  m −2  y −1 –4224.77 g CO 2  m −2  y −1 . Our calculations as first estimate of thawing-induced CO 2 emissions (51.23 g CO 2  m −2  y −1 –3002.82 g CO 2  m −2  y −1 ) from permafrost soils of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under global warming appear to be consistent to measurements of C loss from thawing permafrost soils measured within other studies. Thawing-induced soil CO 2 emissions from permafrost soils with a organic C content ranging from 2.42 g C kg −1 to 425.23 g C kg −1 increase general soil respiration by at least about one third on average at a temperature of 5 °C. Differences between scenarios remain 2 emissions generally decrease over time comparing 2015, 2050 and 2070. With this spatial approximation at a regional scale, a first area-wide estimate of potential CO 2 emissions for 2050 and 2070 from permafrost soils of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is provided. This offers support of assessing potential area-specific greenhouse gas emissions and more differentiated climate change models.