LAUSR

Abstract In the 21st century, the urban systems in most countries have undergone constant change, ranging between shrinkage, growth, and non-linear trajectories. All trends have an effect on the hinterland and are discussed in the context of agglomeration effects or hinterland shrinkage due to reurbanization. Thus, cities' population trajectories are not independent but rather is reinforced or runs contrary to the hinterland development. In order to simultaneously capture trends in cities and their hinterlands, urban life-cycle models are used. Using a systematic differentiation between the trend in the core and the hinterland, it is possible to distinguish between a stronger population growth of core cities and a situation in which the hinterland is growing faster – labeled centralization and decentralization, respectively. Developed in the 1980s, the widely used model of van den Berg reveals, however, some major drawbacks. Against this background, the paper will revisit van den Berg's et al. model and test it against the urban conditions in Europe between 1990 and 2010 by asking whether cities are decentralizing or centralizing and whether there are differences between growing and shrinking cities. The paper develops a city delineation, covering large and small cities, uses data about age structure, and applies an adapted model by measuring the intensity of the trends. The rapidly changing population trends since the beginning of the global economic crisis and its effects in Europe since 2008 require that more attention be paid to changing configurations between cities and processes beyond cities' borders, which is essential for both scholars and urban planners.