LAUSR

OBJECTIVE We hypothesized that spatio-temporal dynamics of interictal spikes reflect the extent and stability of epileptic sources and determine surgical outcome. METHODS We studied 30 consecutive patients (14 good outcome). Spikes were detected in prolonged stereo-electroencephalography recordings. We quantified the spatio-temporal dynamics of spikes using the variance of the spike rate, line length and skewness of the spike distribution, and related these features to outcome. We built a logistic regression model, and compared its performance to traditional markers. RESULTS Good outcome patients had more dominant and stable sources than poor outcome patients as expressed by a higher variance of spike rates, a lower variance of line length, and a lower variance of positive skewness (ps < 0.05). The outcome was correctly predicted in 80% of patients. This was better or non-inferior to predictions based on a focal lesion (p = 0.016), focal seizure-onset zone, or complete resection (ps > 0.05). In the five patients where traditional markers failed, spike distribution predicted the outcome correctly. The best results were achieved by 18-h periods or longer. CONCLUSIONS Analysis of spike dynamics shows that surgery outcome depends on strong, single and stable sources. SIGNIFICANCE Our quantitative method has the potential to be a reliable predictor of surgical outcome.