LAUSR

Abstract A non-intrusive B-Splines Bezier Elements based Method (BSBEM) is proposed as an efficient tool for uncertainty propagation analysis in physical hyperbolic problems. The model’s output response is approximated using a surrogate model whose coefficients are obtained from a set of deterministic calls by means of a regression technique. The accuracy, efficiency and the generality of the proposed approach are assessed using benchmark numerical examples by comparing the convergence of the statistics moments with those of the Polynomial chaos-based point collocation method (Pcol) and the Monte Carlo (MC) method. The generic character of the proposed approach allows it to be implemented for several engineering fields. BSBEM is applied to quantify uncertainty propagation through dam break flows modelled by shallow water equations. The obtained results, which are depicted in terms of water depth and inundation line confidence intervals, show that with a meticulous exploitation of the multi-element aspect and the smoothness feature of the basis functions, the proposed method provides an accurate and smooth approximation of the stochastic output response.