LAUSR

Abstract Brash ice growth in frequently navigated areas like fairways or ports is quick due to the ‘freezing – breaking’ cycle induced by sub-zero temperatures and ship traffic. This problem is very acute in ports in Arctic areas where the temperatures are very low for long durations and the ship traffic is frequent. In order to take adequate action in managing the brash ice, the forecasts of the amount of brash ice expected should be reliable. The aim of this work is to develop and validate these prediction methods. The growth model developed is based on extension of earlier growth models which modify the Stefan type growth modelling. The improvement on the earlier models is that the brash ice layer is divided into three layers (instead of two in earlier models): The consolidated layer just below the water level, the brash ice over the water level and the unfrozen brash ice below the consolidated layer. The thermodynamic model follows the Stefan formulation including only the heat flux from latent heat release upon freezing (Stefan, 1891 and e.g. Anderson, 1961). The modelling includes the cyclic breaking and refreezing. The validation of the model is made using measurements carried out in winter 2013 in Lulea port and in winter 2015 in Sabetta in the Yamal peninsula. Lulea data suggests that the sideways motion of brash ice due to ship motion and wake should be taken into account when assessing the brash ice thickness. The analytical calculation over-estimates the brash ice thickness in the actual channel but under-estimates the total amount of broken ice. When applied to Sabetta data, the analytical calculation predicts well the observed brash ice thickness. It can be concluded that the analytical method that does not take into account any radiation heat fluxes can be applied in the high Arctic where solar radiation plays a minor role and ice surface is clearly below zero.