LAUSR

Background In some individuals who smoke the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an increase in the motivation to quit smoking, due to the higher risk of severe COVID-19 infection. However, this change is not universal, and the motivation to quit appears dependent upon factors such as fear of COVID-19 and perceived risk from COVID-19. In the current investigation, both COVID-19 severity and infection probability beliefs were measured to isolate which beliefs correlated with the motivation to quit smoking. Methods UK-based smokers (N = 243) completed an online survey between September and October 2020, in which they reported their current motivation to quit smoking, fear of COVID-19, and their beliefs about how severe COVID-19 infection would be and how probable COVID-19 infection was. Results The only significant predictor of the motivation to quit smoking was the perceived probability of COVID-19 infection, β = .22, p < .001, 95CI[.10, .34]. This relationship remained when controlling for the general perceived probability and severity of other smoking-related health conditions, β = .20, p = .002, 95CI[.08,.32], suggesting a COVID-19-specific effect. Further, perceived probability of COVID-19 infection mediated the positive impact of fear of COVID-19 on motivation, β = .07, p =  .006, 95CI[.03,.13]. Conclusions The result places the perceived probability of COVID-19 infection as a central predictor of motivation to quit during the pandemic. Based on this evidence, messaging aiming to facilitate smoking cessation during the pandemic should focus on the highly contagious nature of the virus to increase the motivation to quit.